Model Overview

v4

8-signal composite model handling 3-way outcomes (win/draw/loss). Covers 8 leagues: EPL, Champions League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie, Liga MX. Draws >45% probability are skipped. Predictions run hourly.

8 Weighted Signals

Vegas Odds25%
Form (PPG)17%
Goal Diff11%
League Position11%
Elo Rating11%
Injury Impact10%
Home/Away9%
Head-to-Head6%

Confidence Thresholds

STRONG >60%
LEAN 5560%
SKIP <55%

Notes

3-way outcome sport: model converts to 2-way (home vs away) for betting, skips high-draw-probability matches. H2H uses 3-year Bayesian prior clamped 0.3-0.7.

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