Model Overview
v48-signal composite model handling 3-way outcomes (win/draw/loss). Covers 8 leagues: EPL, Champions League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie, Liga MX. Draws >45% probability are skipped. Predictions run hourly.
8 Weighted Signals
Vegas Odds25%
Form (PPG)17%
Goal Diff11%
League Position11%
Elo Rating11%
Injury Impact10%
Home/Away9%
Head-to-Head6%
Confidence Thresholds
STRONG >60%
LEAN 55–60%
SKIP <55%
Notes
3-way outcome sport: model converts to 2-way (home vs away) for betting, skips high-draw-probability matches. H2H uses 3-year Bayesian prior clamped 0.3-0.7.