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MLB Prediction Model v6 — 14 signals

Weighted composite model combining Vegas odds, pitcher matchups, team strength, and advanced Statcast metrics. Predictions run hourly. Trades execute on Kalshi across 8 market types.

Vegas Odds
18%

Primary signal — 60% accuracy when available

Pitcher ERA
14%

+4.1pt gap between correct vs wrong picks

Pitcher xwOBA
7%

Early season noise — improves with sample

Bullpen Quality
7%

Added v6 — now stored for backtesting

Home/Away
6%

MLB ~54% home advantage

Statcast xwOBA
6%

Team batting — needs more games

Pitcher Injury
6%

IL status from ESPN injury feed

Elo Rating
6%

+4.2pt gap — strong team strength signal

Win %
10%

Season record with Bayesian prior

Line Movement
5%

Opening vs current moneyline

H2H Record
5%

Bayesian smoothed matchup history

Weather
4%

Temp, wind, humidity — dome parks neutral

Streak
2%

Win/loss momentum (capped at 10)

Run Diff
4%

Runs scored vs allowed

Strong predictor Early season (improving) New signal Stable

Confidence Tiers & Bet Sizing

HIGH>65%
$15
STRONG60-65%
$12-15
LEAN55-60%
$9-12
SKIP<55%
No trade

Kalshi Market Coverage

MoneylineKXMLBGAME
min edge: 1%
Over/UnderKXMLBTOTAL
min edge: 3%
SpreadKXMLBSPREAD
min edge: 3%
Team TotalKXMLBTEAMTOTAL
min edge: 4%
First 5 InnKXMLBF5
min edge: 4%
HR PropsKXMLBHR
min edge: 5%
Hit PropsKXMLBHIT
min edge: 5%
TB PropsKXMLBTB
min edge: 5%

* Ready = code deployed, awaiting Kalshi market liquidity

Model Calibration (since Mar 27)

0

Resolved

0%

Win Rate

14

Signals

8

Market Types

Accuracy by Confidence Tier

55-60%61.1%36 predictionsUnderconfident (profitable zone)
50-55%50.0%106 predictionsCoin flip (correctly skipped)
60-65%N/A1 predictionsToo few samples

Data Sources

MLB Stats APIBaseball Savant (Statcast)ESPN (injuries/odds)The Odds API (20K)Weather APIKalshi API